Thursday, July 5, 2018

Justify and His March to the Triple Crown




                                                         
                                                      Kentucky Derby 144                                                                
                                                                 Justify
                                       …only a very few shall fly without wings

Greek mythology teaches of the winged, white stallion Pegasus, he who was blessed with the ability to fly the heavens, his unmatched speed, grace and august beauty even to this day symbolizing freedom, majesty and power.  Saturday past, on the wettest Kentucky Derby in its very long history, a different version of mighty Pegasus emerged, not on this occasion from the decapitated body of Medusa but, rather, from the sea of mud which that day was Churchill Downs.  The famous race track announcer Trevor Denman had numerous colorful, descriptive phrases in his repertoire when calling a race.  Had he been the race caller for Saturday’s Derby he undoubtedly would have bought forth his favorite line used in recognition of a totally dominant, overwhelming performance:  “They are going to have to sprout wings to catch Justify.”  No such Pegasus beguiler emerged and, on this day, had such a magical creature burst forth from the mire, mere wings would have likely proved most inadequate to the daunting task of conquering racing’s newest superstar.


Record rains fell continuously throughout the day over the venerable racing oval but could do nothing to dampen spirits of nearly 160,000 fans who donned plastic of varying shape and color to ward off the elements.  Festive dress of all imaginable nature was not in any apparent way subdued by the foreboding weather forecast, with the ladies, young and old, dressed in their celebratory best, while the men, being men, were most complimentary and thankful for this fact!  The party early on appeared to reside under the shelter of the grandstand but, as the liberating beverages took their anticipated effect, the now raucous crowd moved outside and danced in tune with the rain drops.

This 144th running of America’s first racing Classic saw a full field of 20 Thoroughbreds face the starter for the 1 ¼ mile journey, a near two minute quest for fame and fortune, the ultimate rose garland to be earned but by one on this day, with praiseworthy recognition and continued hope for some, and harsh reality for others among the vanquished.  After each Kentucky Derby there is but one horse for which the Triple Crown dream continues and the racing public is not forgiving while analyzing this probability.  In some renewals, perhaps most, there is a hope, but little conviction, that the victor might prove so special as to capture this most elusive of all racing prizes.  Within minutes the talk shifts from the Derby to the probability, or improbability, that the winner might prove superior enough to capture the 2nd and 3rd legs of the Crown.  On this particular day the near unanimous opinion was that this was a very good crop of three year old colts, that there were at least ½ dozen of which could peak on this day and go on to prove dominant over the remainder of the sophomore class.  While the inherent talent of Justify was without doubt, serious reservations existed about the probability that, on this specific day, such raw talent was sufficient to overcome his lack of seasoning and that he, along with the well regarded Magnum Moon, could overcome the so-called “curse of Apollo”, and win the Derby having never raced as a two year old.  Indeed, Justify entered the gate undefeated and with but only three previous starts while Magnum Moon, also undefeated, had faced the starter on only four occasions.  These facts alone cast serious doubts on the likelihood of victory, concerns only compounded by the extremely challenging racing surface.

Any concerns about Justify quickly proved for naught.  Breaking very alertly from the seven hole under Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith, Justify seemed to relish the off-going, and with massive strides quickly swept to the fore, challenged to his inside by the speedy Promises Fulfilled under Corey Lanerie.  The early fractions were rapid and challenging, especially for the tiring surface, with the first ¼ mile run in 22.24 seconds and the ½ mile in 45.77, a ½ mile time 1.80 seconds faster than the immortals Secretariat and Spectacular Bid accomplished while racing on fast racing surfaces.  Fully recognizing that it is how a horse finishes, not how he or she starts, that is of paramount importance in racing, nonetheless such fractions on such a surface speak volumes about the quality of the horse that not only perseveres but dominates his competition from that point forth.  The  challenge of Promises Fulfilled was put to rest around the ½ mile marker at which junction he began a steady retreat to ultimately finish 15th, some twenty lengths behind the winner, and here one suspects that future racing will find him shortened up considerably.  Good Magic, the reigning two year old champion and winner of Keeneland’s G2 Blue Grass Stakes in the first week of April, closely stalked Justify throughout the race and launched his bid in earnest at the top of the stretch with Justify holding a 1 ½ length advantage at that time.  Showing much courage, this chestnut son of Curlin put forth great effort in his attempt to come to even terms with Justify but the latter displayed fortitude becoming of his prodigious talent and kept finding more, the long stretch finding Justify pulling to defeat Good Magic ultimately by 2 ½ lengths.  Audible put in a commendable rail rally to just miss second, with 85:1 longshot Instilled Regard another 1 ¾ lengths back in fourth.  Very impressive, and suffering a brutally wide trip, was the fast closing My Boy Jack, winner of the G3 Lexington Stakes at Keeneland in April.  Some 15 lengths back in the early going, and with but one horse beat as the leaders hit the ½ mile pole, his late closing style played to great disadvantage in this huge field as he was forced to go eight horses wide turning into the stretch. While closing with very good energy he never posed any threat to the winner and finished a non-threatening fifth.  European invader Mendelssohn had a very difficult trip, lost all chance early, and was ridden cautiously and ultimately eased by rider Ryan Moore, this race giving no indication of the talent within this beautifully bred colt.  Much more will surely be later heard from this Aidan O’Brien trainee.  Highly regarded Magnum Moon had a very rough trip and defeated but one horse, while the very talented Bolt d’ Oro  raced forwardly while closely stalking the leaders in the early going, but faded badly in the final ¼ mile to finish a soundly beaten 12th.

And so we are down to Justify as the bearer of the torch, or perhaps burden if you will, of being our hope for another Triple Crown winner.  He has done much in his brief career.  He joins a very exclusive group of undefeated Derby winners; he has forever put to death the 136 year curse of no horse winning the Kentucky Derby without racing at two years of age; he was victorious on the wettest Kentucky Derby ever; his opening first ½ mile is among the fastest ever, yet he finished with good energy and was never threatened.  He is a grand chestnut specimen and his potential at this stage appears limitless.  Concern still relates to his lack of foundation.  While he was the clear and never threatened victor, he was in a full drive, with jockey Mike Smith using the stick at least eight times in the stretch, fully extending the willing colt.  Leaving the track his head was low, he walked very quietly, and he looked fatigued, which of course he had every right to be, but such observations mean little when the normal behavior of a horse is unknown.  The clustering of races at 2-3 week intervals while a horse is in good form has many advocates but, with his limited racing experience and the Preakness but two weeks hence, the hope is that this race did not take too much from him.  If such proves the case recognition of the fact and bypassing the Preakness would be a very sensible, if not unpopular, decision.  Fortunately Justify is in the hands of the consummate horseman in trainer Bob Baffert and, with nothing left to prove in his legendary career, there is little doubt he will recommend what is best for this very special son of the outstanding, and unfortunately deceased, stallion, Scat Daddy.  American Pharoah, Arrogate, Gun Runner, and now comes Justify, a very special colt who appears to have all the physical and mental tools requisite to join this illustrious group of Hall of Fame quality horses.  Only time will tell but the dream is alive and in good hands... and again we hope!

Murray West

(From Bourbon Citizen article)

All photos by Murray West

Paris, Ky








  

































   


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